A sportsbook is a gambling establishment, either online or in a brick-and-mortar building, that accepts bets on sporting events. Its odds are set by the bookmaker based on its analysis of the event. The bookmaker takes a commission, called vigorish, on losing bets. It also moves betting lines as conditions change, such as in the case of an injury or lineup news. A sportsbook may be legal or illegal, depending on the location and state in which it operates.
Damjan’s career took many twists and turns, from humanities to tech, before settling on sports and gambling. His background in philosophy and engineering has given him the ability to view issues from multiple perspectives and make sense of complex problems. He writes about sports betting, esports, and other topics that interest him.
The key to successful wagering on a given match is accurate estimation of the outcome variable’s quantiles. For point spread and point total bets, this entails estimating the distribution of m (the margin of victory) and the sportsbook’s proposed odds. This paper develops a theoretical framework by which to do this, and demonstrates empirical results that instantiate the derived propositions. As a result, it provides insight into how accurately the sportsbook’s proposed odds capture the median outcome, and thus informs whether or not wagering yields positive expected profits. Moreover, it suggests that consistent wagering on the under side of an over-under bet is unlikely to yield any positive expected profit, even if the sportsbook’s estimate falls within 2.4 percentiles of the true median outcome (Theorem 3). The implication is that the bettor must first decide whether or not to place a bet, and if so, on which side, before wagering.